Sunday, May 13, 2012

In Case You Missed It - Gay Marriage Time Table

In September 2010 Hank Pellissier created the following time table for the acceptance of gay marriage in America.

He calculated when same-sex weddings will achieve majority support throughout the country. For 30 states, he did this by adding 1% per year to the percentage that voted against a gay marriage ban, until the total reached 50.1%. 

In the remaining states, He used either polling and/or calculated an acceptance date based on the behavior of neighboring states with a similar demographic.  If a state became surrounded by either gay-marriage states, or by anti-gay marriage states, he accelerated or delayed the process by two to four years.

Justification for this equation is evident in New England, which adopted gay marriage in a daisy-chain fashion, and also in California, which was deeply impacted by Utah Mormons in Prop 8. 

His results are different than those arrived at by statistician Nate Silver of the New York Times but for the most part Hanks results mirror the New York Time report from a year earlier.  Pellissier believed that Silver's numbers were erroneous because he over estimated the slide towards gay-friendliness at 2% annually. You will notice that Governor Perdue's Mississippi comes in dead last.

2004  Massachusetts
2008  Connecticut
2009  Vermont, Iowa
2010  New Hampshire, Washington D.C.
2011  New Jersey
2012  Oregon, California, Maine, New York, Delaware, Washington, South Dakota
2013  Maryland, Colorado
2014  Michigan, Virginia, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, New Mexico
2015  Arizona, Alaska
2016  Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois
2017  Hawaii, Minnesota
2019  Nevada, Indiana
2020  Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Florida, Nebraska
2021  Utah
2024  North Dakota, Missouri
2025  Kansas
2028  Texas
2029  Arkansas, West Virginia, North Carolina
2030  Kentucky, Georgia, Oklahoma
2032  Louisiana, South Carolina
2034  Alabama, Tennessee
2035  Mississippi

Is should be noted that both Canada and Mexico have laws the provide gay marriage is legal.

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