Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Nation's 11th Most Dangerous Neighborhood?

This morning, Charlotte Mecklenburg Police Captain Bruce Bellamy, who heads CMPD's "Metro Division" along with Deputy Chief Kerr Putney and Chief Rodney Monroe will address what they refer to as "incorrect statistics that are circulating that indicate that Charlotte's North Area, is the 11th most dangerous neighborhood in the country."

In an email invitation that was sent to area leaders late yesterday CMPD's Captain Bellamy made a simple request:

"We would like a very strong showing of support to show that the perception that is being portrayed is not shared by those who live and work in this area. Thank you."

The "Press Conference" will be held at the Church at 208 Plymouth Avenue located at the corner of Hobbs and Plymouth. No word if the local media will be on hand.

According to the website http://www.neighborhoodscout.com Charlotte's North Area is an area of several neighborhoods along North Tryon Street -- bounded largely by North Graham Street, Atando Avenue, Brevard Street, and the Brookshire Freeway. It includes the Lockwood and Tryon Hills neighborhoods, along with part of Highland Park. The Charlotte Observer's coverage of the 25 Most Dangerous Neighborhoods is here.

According to the website, annual crime statistics in the area show 108.94 crimes per 1,000 residents giving residents a better than 1 in 9 chance of being a crime victim in the area.

The twist or the smoke and mirrors and Chief Monroe's contention is that the report is using flawed data and a different and really wrong geographical area and that North Charlotte is really a much larger area and therefore crime is really down. Really!

Cedar's Take:

If you live by the sword you die by the sword.

Every first year collage student learns in statistics 101, that you can take any group of numbers and with averages and trend lines you can twist the facts to get your point across. The reality is what counts, you can't tell the mother of a 17 year daughter who was murdered that crime is down.

Chief Monroe has put way to much value on numbers instead of police work. The whole department is a number driven accounting firm, where promotions and demotions are based on numbers and not real results.

Do the numbers matter? Of course, but when you keep patting yourself on the back based solely on numbers don't expect people to stand by you when the numbers go the other way.

Update: According to the Charlotte Observer CMPD Chief Rodney Monroe will release numbers in an effort to refute the findings. You can read more from the Observer here. However it is clear that comparing the two studies is like comparing apples and onions.


Anonymous said...

Funny, but just having this press conference should cause someone to request CMPD to actually identify what the most dangerous neighborhood in Charlotte is. I guess the Chief or anyone else in his Command Staff didn't considered that. Kind of moronic huh?

Anonymous said...

Looks like Monroe is about to eat some crow.

He has been pusing his numbers and lies so long he doesn't know the truth.

I guess that if you zeroed in on one block of ten homes and had one armed robbery last year, you could say that crime was down 100% if there were no more robberies in that block.

Same with the report if you combine only sections of Central and Metro you would have the safest area of Charlotte no crime.

Like Cedar says it's just how you play the numbers.

JAT said...

The Chief is only doing exactly what Curt Walton and city council want him to do, so in their eyes, the presser is brilliant and pro-active. The actual numbers do not matter.

Anonymous said...

It's all in how you count neighborhoods. I can guarantee you that CMPD does not count that "neighborhood" as one neighborhood. It is probably part of at least three separate neighborhoods.

Again, it's all in how you play with the numbers

Anonymous said...

I worked that area some years back. It was a shit hole then and still is one. Twist numbers all you want. Drug dealers work in that area. Where they work, so drives the crime to feed their habit.

Ive seen some strange report changing by RAC's to make it look better.

Example-larceny from a store, the clerk chases the bad guy, bad guy turns around and pulls a gun and points it at the clerk to make his escape.

FBI says that is a Robbery. RAC's and Robbery Unit change it to Larceny and Assault by pointing a gun.

Research a few of those. Makes you laugh.

Anonymous said...

Do you think this is related to the missing online significant event log?

Anonymous said...



October 6, 2010 5:52 PM hahaha

I too worked that area 10 yrs ago and it was a shithole then, drugs, robberies, shootings...I don't even drive near that area ever..I advise anyone I know to stay away from that area- to be quite honest it's already pushing it's way up further coming to the old C1 district as well as the D1/D2 AREAS so whatever BS they are trying to feed the media/ the people of Charlotte they are full of it..just take a walk down Plymouth st one night or Antando see what happens...#11 wow Charlottes Moving up in the world..

Anonymous said...

Another CMPD White Shirt Press Conference, how do this guys sleep at night?

DWright1 said...

I don't know if the disappearance of the significant event log is connected to this (prob not), but I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that there was a direct order from someboby to take it down. It was way too revealing for these people.

Anonymous said...

numbers, figures, Starts from the TOP, but no offense Cedar, check your site daily, glad we can post our frustration, would love to see a post about someone who is ready to DO something, and before get the blah blah what have u done, leave a link, your sleepy eyes will be opened. Cedar is doing the job with the blog and have watched over time, Cedar doing the job, you want to take it further, than Post with contact that you want to make a change

Anonymous said...

If you use the Observer website crime mapping feature http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/06/10/1490871/make-a-neighborhood-crime-map.html

You can outline the area in question. I come up with 91 violent crimes in the last year.

Neighborhoodscout.com used boundaries based on U.S. Census figures and data from the 2008 Uniform Crime Reports.

If there are 1000 people living in that area you'll have a one in nearly ten chance of being a victim of violent crime. I'd guess if you include other types of crime you could have the worse neighborhood in the USA.

Anonymous said...

Of course the chief wanted the significant event log removed, it was one small way people could check on crime on a daily basis, in their area.

And did you see "rodney" say that the murder charges are still good?

He just doesn't have a clue, not one little clue.

Anonymous said...

The number one area for crime is University area! The area they named in this report is # 4 from what I was told!

Had Monroe NOT starting stacking stats WE would not look like this today! Those stats HAD to balance and topple eventually and they did as we all knew they would.

How do I know? I work there in these communities every week.... crime has gone significantly over the last two years! Chris Dennis (who is NOT the man in the pic this morning as he is black)has been a driving force behind cleaning up this area!

HE is the one who got the 5K/NC Music Factory run organized as well! Our first event in this area was a HUGE success! Over 500 runners and almost 3000 people attended and NOT ONE felt any threat in this community!

This is what the City gets for hiring Monroe and we citizens have to pay the price for their lack of solid decision making when hiring Monroe!

They KNEW he had baggage and didn't care! WHY is what I want to know when we had PERFECTLY good candidates with NO baggage within our own department?

There were several there yesterday at the press conference who would have done a HELLUVA lot better job and would have had the TRUST of the citizens...something Monroe will NEVER have.

Yes Monroe I said ... YOU STINK!

JAT said...

What are the big demarcation lines in that part of town then, folks who know it?

I see that a guy was shot dead the other night on Jennings St. off of Lasalle, which is Atando on other side of 77. Which streets "feed" the neighborhoods?

Anonymous said...

The city & chief are just skewing the numbers. Am I the only one who noticed the CMPD website getting rid of the calls for service & significant event log. Do you think that the city and cmpd heads think a unimformed citizen is a better citizen?

Anonymous said...

I work in D2 and anyone who thinks this neighborhood is as bad as they say really need to wake up. I will agree D2 is the taint of Charlotte, but lets be honest, it would not matter who is the chief it would still be D2. So until you get the balls to come work with us (now not 5-10 years ago, get out from under your desk) keep your comments to yourself.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone, anywhere have anything good to say about Rodney Monroe? What does that tell us about his character?

Anonymous said...

Hey October 9, 2010 12:41 AM

Are you new or just stupid??? D2 is a shit hole has been always will be - grow up and quit drinking the koolaid ...